Ryuichi Kaneko (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Tokyo)

Historical demography of future or understanding the past via population projection

Abstract: In this presentation, I propose the introduction of population projection into historical demography. Populations and societies of many current states have been making major shifts toward a new regime. While lessons from history are increasingly required for having prospects, the bird’s-eye view from the super long-term perspective including the future, may alter the relevance of each demographic event in the past. The demographic transition theory had once served as a powerful guide, but the reality developed in a different way. I illustrate the usefulness of the proposal by using the example of Japan as an experimental demographic field.